Afternoon all. It is afternoon. Should have been morning, but you know, mad market, isn’t it?

Seven months into the conflict and the market is still waiting for something concrete. Brent above $107, diesel around $195/bbl, expensive freight and a Brent curve that continues to say tight. Moving oil and having free passage are two very different things.

Brent below $100 might look like relief. Gasoil above $200/bbl says otherwise. Crude and products remain two very different stories, while extraordinary freight costs add another layer to an already expensive barrel.

Diplomacy is apparently back on the menu. Lovely. But Saudi barrels haven’t disappeared, they’ve moved. Europe is losing supply, Asia is gaining it and the market is still trying to decide how much geopolitical risk it should actually price.

Brent keeps knocking on $110 while damage to the East-West pipeline raises another awkward question: how much optionality does this market actually have left? And once again, this isn’t simply a crude story. Products, freight and European distillate supply matter enormously.

Another infrastructure hit, another reminder not to look at crude in isolation. Gasoil above $200/bbl, tighter middle distillates and increasingly complicated trade routes. The market has become remarkably good at adapting. Can it keep doing that forever?

Coming out of APPEC, volatility looks less temporary and increasingly structural. Oil is getting through Hormuz, but that’s only half the story. Products remain tight, diesel is above $200/bbl and the Brent curve is telling its own story.